March 3, 2026
By Mirriam-Grace MacIntyre, Senior Partner, Global Geopolitical Risk Management
The Situation:
The United States and Israel on February 28 launched waves of attacks on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior leaders of the Iranian regime. Iran responded swiftly, launching missile and drone strikes against U.S. bases in several Gulf countries, striking civilian infrastructure and oil refineries, and shuttering flights through some of the world’s busiest airports. Iranian-backed armed groups throughout the region also began to react, most notably with Hezbollah in Lebanon launching rockets into Israel.
No quick end is in sight. The President and Israeli government encouraged Iranians to take over their government, but thus far, after 2,000 U.S. and Israeli strikes, the Iranian regime appears to maintain control of the government. The President acknowledged on Monday that military operations were projected to continue for 4-5 weeks, but the U.S. had the ability to continue operations much longer. He later announced the deployment of additional troops and fighter jets to the region.
Immediate Effects:
- With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to maritime traffic, approximately 10% of global maritime traffic and 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas is blocked from leaving the region. The effects are already being felt in energy markets. Qatar announced it would halt liquefied natural gas shipments after an attack on QatarEnergy, and the price of brent crude rose nearly 10% following attacks on three oil tankers over the weekend. Oil and energy costs will continue to rise, impacting consumers, affecting airline and freight costs, and introducing pricing volatility on longer-term contracts. Some US LNG companies are seeking to fill the gap and Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the Administration would begin rolling out a plan to address concerns about rising oil prices.
- Multiple insurance companies issued war-risk cancellations on maritime insurance effective March 5 while terms and premiums can be reissued, resulting in further delays to delivery timelines and threatening failures to meet terms of service-level agreements. As the conflict drags on, we can expect to see more inventory consumed and more invocations of force majeure claims to insurance companies.
- Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi airports were forced to shutter in recent days, resulting in over 4,000 canceled flights that stranded passengers and flight crews, disrupted air freight across pharmaceutical and electronics industries, and required airlines to take longer, costlier flight routes.
- Companies operating in the region have encouraged their staff to work remotely; however, if tensions continue, ensuring workforce safety will become increasingly important.
- Amazon reported outages after two data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were struck by Iranian drones, causing data and service outages in the affected regions.
What Companies Should Do Now:
- Test Company Scenarios: Companies should evaluate business strategies, supply chains, dependencies, and financial models across a range of potential scenarios, ranging from a short and limited regional crisis to a prolonged, cross-regional conflict.
- Map supply chain exposure: Companies should map their Tier 1 and 2 suppliers transiting through the Straits of Hormuz or through logistics hubs in the Middle East. Executives should prioritize rebooking critical shipments, shift logistics transport through secondary pre-conflict, and adjust delivery timelines.
- Review Insurance Coverage: Legal departments should review terms of agreement, war-risk cancellation causes, force majeure triggers and required notices, ensuring relevant documentation is prepared.
- Establish Crisis Inventory Planning and Policies: Companies should plan for delays in deliveries of critical components and implement crisis plans, which should include pre-positioning spare components at operational locations as well as tracking and rationing use, as necessary.
- Plan for Rising Energy Costs: Companies should evaluate their financial posture in the face of rising energy costs. This should include ensuring pricing tracks against real benchmarks, activating surcharges early, or negotiating new pricing caps or indexed formulas.
- Bolster Physical and Cyber Security Programs: Heightened tensions increase the physical and cyber risks to companies. The Director of National Intelligence’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment noted that Iran’s growing expertise and willingness to conduct cyber operations make it a major threat to the security of U.S. and allied partner networks and data. Companies should anticipate and implement heightened physical and cybersecurity plans for facilities and networks and should monitor for disinformation aimed at causing reputational damage to a company.
- Implement Security Plans for Affected Staff: As the conflict widens, companies should ensure workforce communication plans are updated, safety guidance is issued, and medical evacuation plans are in order.
Mirriam-Grace MacIntyre is the Senior Partner for Global Geopolitical Risk Management at growth[period], where she advises clients on business market expansion and global risk management strategies. Ms. MacIntyre is a distinguished national security leader with over two decades of experience in intelligence, counterintelligence, and global security operations. She previously served as Executive Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, where she led the U.S. government’s top counterintelligence and security programs, and also served as the Director for Counterintelligence at the White House National Security Council.
